Aluminum prices decline, while aluminum scrap markets in Jiangxi, Hunan, and other places remain cautious [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

SMM, July 4:

Today, spot primary aluminum prices fell by 90 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices closed at 20,770 yuan/mt, and aluminum scrap market prices declined slightly overall. Currently in the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises have weak order releases, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs.

Today, the centralized quotes for baled UBC aluminum scrap range from 15,300 to 15,800 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive), while shredded aluminum tense scrap quotes range from 15,800 to 17,300 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive). By product, baled UBC aluminum scrap prices fell by 50 yuan/mt MoM, following the decline in aluminum prices. By region, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and other places closely followed aluminum price movements, with price adjustments ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/mt. Jiangxi, Foshan, Guizhou, Hunan, and other places lagged behind aluminum price movements, with quotes remaining unchanged from yesterday.

In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan narrowed by 90 yuan/mt MoM to 1,767 yuan/mt, while the price difference between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai narrowed by 10 yuan/mt MoM to 1,836 yuan/mt.

Next week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs, with cautious price adjustments. Supported by tight supply, shredded aluminum tense scrap prices are expected to remain resilient, fluctuating rangebound within the 15,800 to 17,400 yuan/mt range. Baled UBC aluminum scrap may continue its downward trend due to off-season demand, possibly dipping to 15,200 to 15,700 yuan/mt. Subsequent attention should be paid to marginal changes in raw material circulation (such as ADC12 aluminum shavings supply) and signals of terminal order recovery.

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